LINELOGIC

Follow the money. Find the edge.

Best bets · upcoming
Legend
StrongSharp money plus a second signal: a reverse line move, or 60%+ of bets on the other side. GoodSharp money or a reverse line move on its own. TrendNo single signal, but fading the public in this sport and market has returned +10% or better over 10+ games. LeanThe only signal is 70%+ of bets on the other side. SharpThe side with under 50% of bets has a money share 10+ points higher than its bet share. RLMReverse line move: 60%+ of bets on one side, but the line moved toward the other. Value betThe pick's tier has returned +5% or better over 12+ graded games. BenchedA tier or market losing 10%+ over 12+ games in that sport; its picks are hidden until it recovers. Best priceThe best line and odds across the sportsbooks we track, and which book has it. Bet soon / Good numberWhether the line has moved against this pick or in its favor since the board first saw it. Key numberNFL and college football games most often end by 3 or 7, so getting or laying those numbers matters. CLVClosing line value: whether the pick's number beat the last line before the game. The best long-run sign of sharp picks. Return / unitsProfit per 1-unit bet: +20% return means +0.20 units per bet on average.

Value bets

Test picks · 0 Not official

Sport-specific strategies being tested live since Oct 25. They lock in before game time like real picks, but they are not part of the Best bets record. Their results are on the Record tab.

Track record

Every pick is the fade side, ranked by signal: the sharp money gap, a reverse line move, and how heavy the public is on the other team. Strong = sharp money plus a second signal; Good = sharp money or RLM alone; Lean = 70%+ of bets on the other side. Trend = fading the public in that sport and market has returned +10% or better over 10+ graded games. Picks tune themselves as results come in: once a signal has a real sample in that sport and market, a winning return counts it up and a losing one counts it down. Moneyline returns use the actual prices. Signals, not guarantees.

% of bets% of moneyGap = money minus bets on the side with the edge
Test picks record · not official

Each strategy is tested on games it has never seen: picks lock before game time with the same rules as Best bets. A strategy is Ready to promote after 50+ games over 3+ weeks with a profit, and flagged Retire? at −10% or worse over 30+ games.

Results · ·
Fade the public0-0
Sharp side (under 50% of bets)0-0Money % is 10+ points higher than bets %, e.g. 35% of bets but 50% of money: fewer people, bigger bets.
Public side (most bets)0-0
Public in close splits (50–55%)0-0
RLM side0-0
Fade heavy public (70%+)0-0
Best bets · Strong0-0
Best bets · Good0-0
Best bets · Trend0-0
Best bets · Lean0-0
By team: record when the public was on them
Weekly log: every category, week by week (Tue–Mon)

Record and units at 1 unit each for the market and sport selected above. Weeks close after Monday night's games.

Season so far
NFL full season · every game · through Week 6

Every NFL game, not only the ones on this board (updated Oct 22). Public = the side with most spread bets.

Public ATS, season47-44-2 · 52%
75%+ of money on one side7-6
Sharp vs public, head to headSharp 3-2
Public ATS, Thursday games (as of Oct 19)0-6
WeekPublic ATS
16-9-1
29-7
310-6
46-9-1
510-5
66-8
Past seasonsPublic ATS75%+ money
2025-26145-14015-18
2024-25139-133-828-16-2
2023-24137-126-1232-28-2
2022-23122-149-8—
2021-22147-143-4—
TeamTeam ATS as of Oct 19
Raiders5-1
Vikings4-1
49ers4-1
Jets4-1-1
Bills4-2
Bears4-2
Browns4-2
Broncos4-2
Giants4-2
Steelers4-2
Panthers3-2
Chiefs3-2
Patriots3-2-1
Cardinals3-3
Packers3-3
Colts3-3
Jaguars3-3
Saints3-3
Titans3-3
Bengals2-3
Dolphins2-3
Commanders2-3
Ravens2-3-1
Cowboys2-3-1
Falcons2-4
Texans2-4
Eagles2-4
Lions1-3-1
Seahawks1-3-2
Rams1-5
Buccaneers1-5
Chargers0-5-1
My bets
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Flags: Fade is the pick: the side with fewer bets. Sharp when the side with under 50% of bets has a money share 10+ points above its bet share; its record counts when that lower-bet side wins (or covers / hits). The moves line shows every change in the number and when it happened. RLM (reverse line move) when 60%+ of bets are on one side but the spread moved toward the other. Heavy when one side has 70%+ of bets. Close when neither side has more than 55% of bets; those games get their own record.