Line Logic

Public betting splits, line moves and how the public is doing.

Best bets · upcoming

Legend

StrongSharp money plus a second signal: a reverse line move, or 60%+ of bets on the other side. GoodSharp money or a reverse line move on its own. TrendNo single signal, but fading the public in this sport and market has returned +10% or better over 10+ games. LeanThe only signal is 70%+ of bets on the other side. SharpThe side with under 50% of bets has a money share 10+ points higher than its bet share. RLMReverse line move: 60%+ of bets on one side, but the line moved toward the other. Value betThe pick's tier has returned +5% or better over 12+ graded games. BenchedA tier or market losing 10%+ over 12+ games in that sport; its picks are hidden until it recovers. Best priceThe best line and odds across the sportsbooks we track, and which book has it. Bet soon / Good numberWhether the line has moved against this pick or in its favor since the board first saw it. Key numberNFL and college football games most often end by 3 or 7, so getting or laying those numbers matters. CLVClosing line value: whether the pick's number beat the last line before the game. The best long-run sign of sharp picks. Return / unitsProfit per 1-unit bet: +20% return means +0.20 units per bet on average.

Value bets

Track record

Every pick is the fade side, ranked by signal: the sharp money gap, a reverse line move, and how heavy the public is on the other team. Strong = sharp money plus a second signal; Good = sharp money or RLM alone; Lean = 70%+ of bets on the other side. Trend = fading the public in that sport and market has returned +10% or better over 10+ graded games. Picks tune themselves as results come in: once a signal has a real sample in that sport and market, a winning return counts it up and a losing one counts it down. Moneyline returns use the actual prices. Signals, not guarantees.

% of bets% of moneyGap = money minus bets on the side with the edge

Results · ·

Fade the public0-0

Sharp side (under 50% of bets)0-0Money % is 10+ points higher than bets %, e.g. 35% of bets but 50% of money: fewer people, bigger bets.

Public side (most bets)0-0

Public in close splits (50–55%)0-0

RLM side0-0

Fade heavy public (70%+)0-0

Best bets · Strong0-0

Best bets · Good0-0

Best bets · Trend0-0

Best bets · Lean0-0

By team: record when the public was on them

Weekly log: every category, week by week (Tue–Mon)

Record and units at 1 unit each for the market and sport selected above. Weeks close after Monday night's games.

Season so far

NFL full season · every game · through Week 6

Every NFL game, not only the ones on this board (updated Oct 22). Public = the side with most spread bets.

Public ATS, season47-44-2 · 52%

75%+ of money on one side7-6

Sharp vs public, head to headSharp 3-2

Public ATS, Thursday games (as of Oct 19)0-6

Week	Public ATS
1	6-9-1
2	9-7
3	10-6
4	6-9-1
5	10-5
6	6-8

Past seasons	Public ATS	75%+ money
2025-26	145-140	15-18
2024-25	139-133-8	28-16-2
2023-24	137-126-12	32-28-2
2022-23	122-149-8	—
2021-22	147-143-4	—

Team	Team ATS as of Oct 19
Raiders	5-1
Vikings	4-1
49ers	4-1
Jets	4-1-1
Bills	4-2
Bears	4-2
Browns	4-2
Broncos	4-2
Giants	4-2
Steelers	4-2
Panthers	3-2
Chiefs	3-2
Patriots	3-2-1
Cardinals	3-3
Packers	3-3
Colts	3-3
Jaguars	3-3
Saints	3-3
Titans	3-3
Bengals	2-3
Dolphins	2-3
Commanders	2-3
Ravens	2-3-1
Cowboys	2-3-1
Falcons	2-4
Texans	2-4
Eagles	2-4
Lions	1-3-1
Seahawks	1-3-2
Rams	1-5
Buccaneers	1-5
Chargers	0-5-1

Loading games…

Flags: Fade is the pick: the side with fewer bets. Sharp when the side with under 50% of bets has a money share 10+ points above its bet share; its record counts when that lower-bet side wins (or covers / hits). The moves line shows every change in the number and when it happened. RLM (reverse line move) when 60%+ of bets are on one side but the spread moved toward the other. Heavy when one side has 70%+ of bets. Close when neither side has more than 55% of bets; those games get their own record.